Weekly Roundup – November 25, 2024

"Last week could very well mark the point when the migration of ad dollars from linear TV to streaming began accelerating to terminal velocity. The news, confirmed last Wednesday, that Comcast will spin off most of its NBCUniversal cable networks carries a number of profound implications for the media business, but especially significant is its potential impact on the video ad market. With the next few years already poised to become an era of rapid expansion for connected TV formats, this new transformation of the linear ecosystem is likely to hasten advertisers’ exodus away from cable almost altogether."

Our Take: Cable will eventually become a footnote to streaming. But not nearly as quickly as some in the media like to say. Cable's sports and league broadcast arrangements will stave off cable's demise for a lot longer than you think.

"...Netflix offered subscribers access to thousands of movies and TV shows on-demand and all ad-free for a relatively low monthly fee of $7.99. The streaming revolution, ushered in by Netflix, promised to finally kill ubiquitous television ads. But it turns out streaming wasn’t a nail in the coffin of the television commercial, it was just a slight detour.
Television ads are back and stronger than ever—and even Netflix, the company that once declared itself an advertising-free sanctuary, is now fully on board. After years of resistance, Netflix finally joined other major streaming services in embracing advertising as a key and growing source of revenue."

Our Take: The theory is that the major streamers hooked consumers on its products by promising ad-free quality programming. There was a lot of investment in the early days of streaming that now needs a return - hence, tons of ads. Lots of people have cut the cord to rediscover the cable-experience with streaming platforms, only this time the ad-buys are more individuated via targeting and extensive data collection.

"-About one-in-five Americans – including a much higher share of adults under 30 (37%) – say they regularly get news from influencers on social media.
-News influencers are most likely to be found on the social media site X, where 85% have a presence. But many also are on other social media sites, such as Instagram (where 50% have an account) and YouTube (44%).
-Slightly more news influencers explicitly identify as Republican, conservative or pro-Donald Trump (27% of news influencers) than Democratic, liberal or pro-Kamala Harris (21%).
-A clear majority of news influencers are men (63%).
-Most (77%) have no affiliation or background with a news organization."

Our Take: The big draw to 'news influencers' is that they are not part of the legacy 24/7 news establishment. 'News influencers' are just a new, potentially more influential establishment in their own right.

"Before, the biggest TV deal in college football was that of the Big Ten conference; an $8 billion media deal with CBS, Fox, and NBC. Although the dollar amount is greater, the SEC viewership has skyrocketed, and the SEC has been occupying the major time slots.
This partnership will greatly benefit all of the teams that are part of the SEC. With the lion's share of the funds going to SEC member schools, student-athletes could be greatly compensated for their efforts during their respective seasons.
On-air time has been hard to attain for many teams and conferences, with previous seasons being dominated by certain bigger leagues. Teams apart of the SEC are especially ecstatic that their games have been given the Noon, 3:30, and primetime slots. These highly coveted TV slots have increased viewership by a wide margin."

Our Take: The viewership rates and marketability of the SEC is a jewel in ESPN's crown.

"A new report by Music Radar has found that more music is currently released every single day than was released in the entire calendar year of 1989.
In an extensive report on music streaming services, Music Radar looked into the state of the “music creation economy” and subscription models, with added commentary from Spotify’s former Chief Economist, Will Page.
“More music is being released today (in a single day) than was released in the calendar year of 1989,” Page revealed. “And more of that music is being done by artists themselves, meaning there’s even more demand for music production software.”"

Our Take: It's well and good that music streaming services are making bank in today's content economy. However, long-term, there are serious problems with the sheer amount of music being pumped daily into platforms like Spotify:
1. Market oversaturation
2. Devaluation of music overall
3. Reduction in revenue per stream
4. Quantity over quality: This could result in a diminished overall perception of music's value and quality
5. Extreme churn
6.Revenue gap for smaller artists
7. Everything begins to sound the same

"It’s not clear how widespread this “turn off the news” movement is. For one, there is general news fatigue that predated the election. And it’s too early to tell whether news publishers are seeing drop-offs in their audiences. While many saw their post-election-week ratings and audiences down in 2024 compared with 2020, that could pick back up as the transition progresses and Trump takes office.
Silver is surveying thousands of people about their feelings about the election — she has been following them for years — and expects to learn next month whether people are widely turning off the news and, if so, why. For now, she has theories and questions. Perhaps heavy news consumers are the ones tuning out the most now. Maybe people who were stressed about the uncertainty of the election no longer need to monitor the news because they now have certainty. Or could there be a general we’ve lived through this before malaise?"

Our Take: This is an 'Uh-oh' moment for major legacy news outlets (except Fox News). The Trump bump from 2016-2020 seems unlikely to rematerialize this time around with people opting to engage in activities like gardening or catching up with loved ones rather than doomscrolling on the CNN/NYTimes app. It will be interesting to see whether this has larger implications for national vs. local news. Be sure to pay attention to this space as Crowd React Media is preparing its first State of Media: TV News report.