Over my journey in the media business, I have found that true achievers are always learning and looking to the future. Yes, we can learn from looking back. However, we tend to do too much of that and not plan for what lies ahead.

I remember back in 1996 I was a Program Director for a sports radio station in Salt Lake City while also hosting an afternoon sports show with former NBA Coach Tom Nissalke. In addition to hosting the show I was responsible for running the control studio board. That was the last time we used tape cartridges for commercials and production elements. Technology was changing.  One of the interesting memories from that year, was one day we were all asked to gather in a meeting room. At that session, we were introduced to this new concept called e-mail. We were each given Hotmail Accounts.  My how things have changed since then.

2025 is quite different from 1996.  2030 will be different from 2025, which may seem hard to imagine. This all begs the question…. Are you ready for 2030? Seems like a long time away, but the reality is that it is right around the corner.

One of the most important lessons for me was during my time with ABC/ESPN in Dallas from 2001 to 2006.  This is where the value of long-term planning became particularly important to me.  All departments participated in the annual 5-year planning process.  The immediate focus was on the year ahead; however, we were required to look beyond and to anticipate expenses as well as strategies.

Fast forward to 2025, and the pace of change has accelerated dramatically. The reality is that things are NOT going to slow down anytime soon. The legacy media which includes newspapers, television, and my world of radio, must find ways to adapt to the new landscape.

With change there are opportunities….in radio (audio) there is the one constant….” It is all about the content!”  The consumer has more power than ever.  They are demanding in what they want to watch or listen to. Understanding your audience and what they want has never been more important as they have many sources to get what they want.  Just as critical is understanding how the listener consumes your content.  This includes the various platforms that are available as well as the way the programming is presented

Some of the key challenges/opportunities in front of us today include the following:

• Too many content providers are living in the past. “This is how we have always done things.”
• The rapid decline in attention spans. Nielsen recently changed the criteria for quarter-hour credit. It used to require a panelist to listen for 5 minutes inside a 15-minute quarter-hour. That has now moved to 3:00 as research shows 45% of those surveyed listen for less than 5 minutes.
• Streaming is only going to grow in importance to the consumer. They want their content when they want it and where they want it.
• With streaming comes more competition. Any organization or person can start their own production and generate an audience.
• Social media plays an outsized role in developing loyalty among audiences.
• Personalities that stand out will continue to drive audience engagement

With all this to consider, how can you think about even looking ahead 5 years? The smart leaders know that part of this is about anticipating how things will evolve. Look at the issues TV and Radio are facing.  The amount of cord cutting with cable continues to increase on a yearly basis.  The number of platforms where you can hear audio content is developing by the day. The average screen time for an iPhone owner is over 3 hours per day.

Makes sense more than ever to have regular conversations looking ahead. If we stay in the present, we are going to get passed by someone else that has a true vision for where things are going. Take time, when possible, to talk to your customers (content consumers and advertisers) about what they want and how they decide what to watch/listen. Schedule meetings at least twice per year to look to the future beyond the current 12 months.

The bottom line, change is constant. The status quo is no longer an option for sustained success, as those that are nimble, flexible, and adaptable will have the best chance to win in the long run.  Research whether done internally or externally should be a key component of long-term planning. Never assume things are going to stay the same in the future.

• Important to always be learning and looking to the future.

• Technology is changing all the time.

• Planning must be more than immediate – look ahead 5 years.

• 2030 will be much different than 2025.

• With change there are opportunities.

• Decline in attention spans is an important consideration.

• Streaming is only going to grow.

• Content saturation is real.

• Change will be constant.

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Here are our predictions:

• Traditional Radio persists in the digital age
  • Our whitepapers serve to demonstrate the remarkable resilience of traditional radio in the age of streaming and social media. The localism and community inherent to radio, particularly with sports talk and Hispanic radio, give it a foothold in a turbulent period of legacy media upheaval.  Radio broadcasters are also not tech-shy.  Digital streams of local stations are musts for any broadcaster hoping to survive in this environment.  And the good news is, people are listening.  More than half the country regularly listens to traditional radio.  The trajectory of cable and radio in the streaming era couldn’t be starker.  An artist having a song in regular rotation on radio stations lends credibility to that artist in a way that streaming does not.  Among the first stops for any reputable publicity team are the station heads for new music formats.  Radio airplay simply confers credibility and will continue to do so.
• Cable is just streaming now
  • Cable will rise again, albeit in the form of streaming. Cable companies are in for a rough 2025 with continued cord-cutting into the latter half of the 2020s.  However, streaming will increasingly resemble broadcast cable, especially with regards to cost.  Investors will be pushing hard to recoup their initial investment into streaming, resulting in price-hikes, increased ad-visibility, tiered ad plans, and expensive pay-per view special event offerings.  The increasingly byzantine package-deals within pre-existing subscriptions to streaming platforms will have many customers feeling they traded out their cable boxes for a near-identical experience with streaming boxes and smartTVs.

• Podcasts are primarily a video-based medium, an on-demand version of Daytime TV
  • Whether it’s Joe Rogan, Call her Daddy, New Heights, or virtually any True Crime series, what you’re basically consuming is a newfangled version of The Ellen Show, The View, or Nancy Grace. There will be an audio component to podcasts, but that is for the audio ‘purists’. Parasocial relationships are the norm nowadays, and podcasts, especially video podcasts, offer a level of intimacy with the consumer that surpasses the limitations of broadcast daytime television.  Podcasts were originally thought principally to be a threat of talk radio.  Today and in the future, podcasts are a threat to roundtable television programs.
• Music streaming platforms will stagnate
  • When everyone and their mom has a Spotify or Apple Music account, what is the growth strategy for music streaming platforms? How do you make more money on a product as ubiquitous as music streaming?  Wall Street requires constant innovation and profit growth, and year-on-year stagnation of profits will not fly.  Expect a mild consumer backlash to music streaming and some worrying reports on flagging user growth for these platforms.
• Wherever Sports goes, the entire media industry will follow
  • The carrier disputes between Disney/ESPN and Charter Communications and Dish TV, essentially hastened cord-cutting. Being able to watch SEC football games outstripped any loyalty to cable carriers.  They switched to streaming alternatives like YouTubeTV…and stayed there.  Millions made the switch and fundamentally altered the trajectory of the broadcast industry.
  • Pat McAfee, a viral YouTube personality, effectively disrupted the nature of daytime sports programming, with his bespoke fusion of bonhomie, betting tips, irreverent banter, insider takes, and sophomoric charm. He is an influencer that cracked the mainstream and changed expectations for what sports programming looks and sounds like (YouTube, basically).
  • NIL’s implications will be more keenly felt in 2025, with College football stars climbing out of their Lamborghinis in Armani suits and Gucci shades with paparazzi in their face at the stadium on game day. The production, presentation, and audience reach will gradually resemble that of the professional leagues.
• Artificial Intelligence
  • Expect one thing about AI to really heat up in 2025: More think-pieces on AI.

We at Crowd React Media would like to thank all who downloaded our whitepaper reports and regularly read our weekly roundup.  We hope to hear from you in 2025!

Best,

Sean Bos

Co-founder at Crowd React Media

Vice President of Research at Harker Bos Group

The post 2025 Media Predictions appeared first on Crowd React Media.

After that, I was on my way and happy to get the experience. It was all about getting a couple of hours on the radio every weekend.  Back in those days, media was about the Big Three: Radio, Television and Newspapers.  These were the only venues people went to for information and entertainment.  Cell phones did not exist, the internet was not yet available, and cable television was just starting to become part of our lives. It would be years before social media would exist.

Fast forward to 2024 and the landscape is so different.  Legacy Media including Radio and Television face more competition than ever.  In terms of audio, there are so many places to hear and view content.  On average, people check their smart phone 144 times per day and spend 4.5 hours on the device. This is just another indication of the challenge radio and audio providers face in getting their content listened to.  Consumers have never had so many options, and with that change is something we all need to be constantly aware of.

Radio is about to undergo a huge change in how audience measurement takes place.  For as long as I can remember, programmers such as myself have always asked talent the question of the day; “Did you get the 5 minutes?” (In fact, I wrote about this in June!) This has been the standard that programmers and hosts have used to determine how successful our content is. However, Nielsen has announced that, effective January 9^th, the game changes and the criteria for quarter-hour credit will now be 3 minutes. We are told that this is being done in response to the fact that currently 45% per PPM panelist listening is under 5 minutes.  The expectation is that with this adjustment, stations will see increases in AQH Share by an average of 24%

There is a lot of discussion on the best strategies for moving forward to put your station in the best possible position to be successful. I have talked with numerous programmers over the last several weeks to get different points of view; There are some that feel it is best to stay the course and do nothing. There are others who believe this is an opportunity to be creative and move away from the bow tie approach to clocks that has been utilized for years.

Here is what we know based on information from Nielsen.

• 23% of listening is between 3 and 5 minutes. With this change, stations will get credit for more content consumption.
• 15% of listening is at 2 minutes. Think about the opportunity that this presents for all content providers; Being able to convert the 2-minute listener to 3 would have a significant impact on AQH Share.
• The clock means nothing to the listener. Although many of us think about the top and bottom of the hour, or the return from a commercial break, the reality is that the audience is changing minute by minute.
• With this change, previous listening that was uncredited around the quarter-hour transition will now be credited.

What does this all mean? As content creators, those of us who have worked in radio must understand that the consumer is in control. It is important to realize that our approach to presentation must get with the times.  There are other options for the listener if they do not like what you are delivering. Every time someone opens a microphone, it is a chance to make either a good or bad first impression on someone. It is important to not waste time – get right to the point of conversation that matters to the listener and make sure you made listening through a commercial stop set worth their time.

The phrase “It’s all about the Content!” is what this is all about.  Give the audience what they want and do this in a world where it is all about the 3 minutes.  As someone who grew up in the time of Top 40 Radio, to me it has always been about playing the hits.  This is still the recipe for success whether spoken word or music.  It is important to know that in a 15-minute quarter-hour your audience changes multiple times.

Key Takeaways:

• Legacy Media such as Radio and Television face more competition than ever.
• Radio Measurement about to undergo a major change. The criterial for quarter-hour credit from Nielsen will change from 5 minutes to 3 minutes effective January 9^th, 20245.
• Currently 45% of PPM Listening is under 5 minutes. 23% of listening is between 3 and 5 minutes.
• The big opportunity is to come up with a strategy to convert 2:00 consumers to 3:00.
• New listeners join your programming on a minute-by-minute basis.
• In the end, it is still all about the content. We have to adapt to changes in consumer behavior which is most impacted by declining attention spans.

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